FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa863fcf350c8d948bcfdd140fae260a86017a9afe9ebd9e203f1d3eb70946870

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,826 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under	36c	5,600$2,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,004.54	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	62c	4,932$3,046 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,886.64	1,487	40.3%599 W · 888 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over	78c	4,708$3,677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,030.12	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	39c	3,067$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.45	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+20.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a8f…e5f5backed Under	27c	2,376$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.85	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	57c	1,786$1,011 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$775.49	450	42%189 W · 261 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	38c	1,334$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$827.38	82	23.2%19 W · 63 L	-9.7wins	-0.12per pick	35cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	65c	1,095$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381.69	208	32.2%67 W · 141 L	-17.3wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	70c	1,048$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.85	433	33.5%145 W · 288 L	-12.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	62c	798.99$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.24	614	47.2%290 W · 324 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under	17c	780.21$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.88	10	30%3 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	50c	712.5$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.53	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	62c	685$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.7	606	48.3%293 W · 313 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	57c	670.87$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.79	1,959	44.1%863 W · 1,096 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	38c	662$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.49	881	37.7%332 W · 549 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under	50c	647.23$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.56	73	45.2%33 W · 40 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under	27c	400$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Over	70c	393.33$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+6.3wins	+0.15per pick	41cpaid	+27%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over	35c	360.1$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.07	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	+4.3wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	42c	346.62$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.53	704	35.8%252 W · 452 L	-27.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over	22c	343.53$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.53	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	42cpaid	+96.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Under	40c	336.01$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47d9…54b7backed Under	29c	314.33$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.57	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Under	5c	279.94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over	76c	278.12$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.15	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Under	40c	277$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.8	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…01cdbacked Under	19c	263.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf04…90b5backed Over	49c	261.22$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.22	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.26per pick	39cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	62c	246$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	520	46.7%243 W · 277 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Under	64c	234.84$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	86	50%43 W · 43 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	38c	216.91$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.49	875	31.1%272 W · 603 L	-13.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3968…85b5backed Over	35c	211.15$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.15	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.5wins	+0.27per pick	50cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	63c	202$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.32	591	36.5%216 W · 375 L	-30.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	73c	192.72$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.68	242	45.9%111 W · 131 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over	69c	187.42$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.29	108	40.7%44 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	69c	161.37$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.45	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…df19backed Under	51c	147.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	28c	144.94$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.36	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Over	75c	133.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under	78c	132$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.96	75	48%36 W · 39 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Under	40c	119.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.97	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under	76c	113$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.67	73	56.2%41 W · 32 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under	40c	99.88$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	73c	97.5$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.54	161	44.7%72 W · 89 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Under	40c	83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Under	52c	76.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.51	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	70c	70$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.77	163	50.9%83 W · 80 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under	53c	69.24$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.47	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-5.1wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf786…25fbbacked Under	65c	63.4$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.98	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf61…1e34backed Under	21c	60.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+4.6wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	63	46%29 W · 34 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	59c	54.98$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.54	97	49.5%48 W · 49 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3110…c3f5backed Over	38c	52.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.63	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Under	66c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over	59c	48$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.68	119	52.1%62 W · 57 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Under	40c	47.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.19	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over	62c	42$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.06	71	63.4%45 W · 26 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	35c	38.71$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.17	97	48.5%47 W · 50 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over	49c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.32	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under	59c	31.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-17%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	36c	29$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	346	42.2%146 W · 200 L	-15.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under	60c	28.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	100	45%45 W · 55 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under	60c	25.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over	54c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	154	42.9%66 W · 88 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d9…1059backed Over	61c	22.38$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.73	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	62c	22.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	631	50.2%317 W · 314 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f97…6aafbacked Over	75c	21.33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.33	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	209	16.7%35 W · 174 L	-36.8wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	64c	15.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	994	35%348 W · 646 L	-10.9wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed Under	80c	12.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	19	89.5%17 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	80cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5this page
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to AdvanceFK Crvena zvezda won
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event