Champions League · resolved market
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0255c3e358fcb36d74d82f9a94f379d64cc22f1e6d89b7313d4ee469a7fef6f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Crvena zvezdaof FK Crvena zvezda, Larne FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed Larne FC | 41c | 36,831$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 11,499$6,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,729.71 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 62c | 4,771$2,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.44 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FK Crvena zvezda | 66c | 3,696$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.9 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 2,731$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.52 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.59 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FK Crvena zvezda | 79c | 1,904$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.46 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 1,826$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 1,505$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.3 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 1,241$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.92 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +7.6wins | +0.40per pick | 44cpaid | +136%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 1,095$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.09 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Larne FC | 37c | 982$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.34 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 884.98$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.99 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 58c | 862$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 846.44$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.04 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 616$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.92 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 583.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Larne FC | 4c | 544.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 507$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.15 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Larne FC | 40c | 469$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 464.2$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FK Crvena zvezda | 58c | 373$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed FK Crvena zvezda | 71c | 333$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 67c | 262.41$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Larne FC | 40c | 255.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Larne FC | 39c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Larne FC | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 221.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +97%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 183.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 178.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Larne FC | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Larne FC | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FK Crvena zvezda | 58c | 90.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 53.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 50.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 50.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed FK Crvena zvezda | 68c | 48.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Larne FC | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed FK Crvena zvezda | 76c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 24.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed FK Crvena zvezda | 64c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 22.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…7c5dbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked FK Crvena zvezda | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to AdvanceFK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.