Champions League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9746975bdfd5590aa7fd08bf1c634d3de04a6adb6bbf475a3623100422af827e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 4,247$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.95 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 23c | 1,905$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.12 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 24c | 1,682$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.82 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 19c | 1,219$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.64 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 1,201$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 14c | 957.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 22c | 554$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…5501backed Over | 14c | 542.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 527.2$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…ba6dbacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 61c | 309.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 298.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 21c | 248.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 79c | 247$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 47c | 212.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf04…90b5backed Over | 47c | 198.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 175$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 77c | 152$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked Over | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 21c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 15c | 120.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 11c | 111.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…788abacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 43c | 93.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 79.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61b…fe5ebacked Under | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 52c | 75.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 77c | 59.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 58c | 59.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 24c | 54.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…7fdbbacked Under | 73c | 42.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 79c | 36.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to AdvanceFK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.