Champions League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9cc78aa80a2985c0790ca80f9d49e053ab764c27925854da9047f48c7335524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed Over | 36c | 3,260$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 64c | 1,625$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.16 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 38c | 1,248$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…5c03backed Under | 65c | 906.75$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 777.94$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.67 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 36c | 463.31$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 65c | 395.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 64c | 390$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 64c | 390$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 63c | 377.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…deedbacked Over | 35c | 232.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 64c | 123.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…fc6cbacked Under | 64c | 111.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 63c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Under | 61c | 67.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 63c | 66.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 65c | 47.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Over | 33c | 38.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 32.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…3172backed Under | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to AdvanceFK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.