Premier League · resolved market
Will Brighton vs Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c040e84c54cc481adfafefd0391893e737f9841ab904ddc736150b652023b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 71c | 1,656$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.11 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 76c | 1,420$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.73 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…fe71backed Yes | 26c | 1,140$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 27c | 982.22$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…bffdbacked Yes | 47c | 496.24$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 30c | 473.01$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Yes | 39c | 433$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…a784backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…cfa0backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 30c | 350.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…738fbacked Yes | 31c | 329.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…4b9cbacked Yes | 27c | 281.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 73c | 248.13$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 15c | 186.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 36c | 156.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 26c | 123.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 74c | 103.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…87d1backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 74c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 30c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brighton vs Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton beat Manchester United?Yes won
- Will Manchester United beat Brighton?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.