TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NEW VISIONof NEW VISION, Benched gods
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a5b…d1ddbacked NEW VISION35c14,752$5,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,530.923171%22 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked NEW VISION45c6,494$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.7392456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Benched gods65c4,566$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.093,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf292…a6d3backed NEW VISION47c3,133$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.793961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Benched gods51c3,113$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.627,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed NEW VISION38c2,710$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.8741050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Benched gods53c2,462$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.863,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Benched gods66c2,356$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.467139.4%28 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Benched gods67c2,299$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.722,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Benched gods54c2,168$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.362,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Benched gods53c1,504$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.358745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805d…f780backed NEW VISION52c1,468$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.842853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed NEW VISION47c1,452$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.5330155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba03…0486backed Benched gods61c1,408$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.863545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Benched gods55c1,086$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.472,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Benched gods53c1,019$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.891,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Benched gods60c965.22$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.746744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Benched gods58c740$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.973,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Benched gods66c735.59$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.385759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe222…6019backed NEW VISION51c731.51$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.264450%22 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed NEW VISION39c650.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.8629543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed Benched gods61c599$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.217152.1%37 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Benched gods59c580.27$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.855,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Benched gods49c553.57$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5989046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Benched gods68c522.03$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.432,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Benched gods55c479.2$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.431,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa28a…01c5backed NEW VISION59c464.51$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.734459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Benched gods48c459.67$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.632,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked NEW VISION32c426.57$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.072,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Benched gods45c410.88$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.392,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked NEW VISION61c408.99$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5124939.8%99 W · 150 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Benched gods63c357.57$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22417546.3%81 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed NEW VISION48c344.76$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9721845.9%100 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Benched gods51c321.18$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2551446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Benched gods67c308.17$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.362,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Benched gods49c298.6$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.512,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed NEW VISION36c291.18$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3513449.3%66 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54bc…b4e9backed Benched gods69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked NEW VISION31c289.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20033340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d4…02fdbacked Benched gods68c220.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Benched gods53c206.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.871,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed NEW VISION34c202.66$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7611242%47 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f73…5b47backed Benched gods50c201.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc2b…cec3backed Benched gods61c199.39$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.638045%36 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Benched gods71c188.61$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.094,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed NEW VISION51c180$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5249143%211 W · 280 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Benched gods49c176.43$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4555738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed Benched gods65c175$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6512948.1%62 W · 67 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d4a…c078backed NEW VISION41c170.58$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8512271.3%87 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked Benched gods56c167.65$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.478048.8%39 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Benched gods60c163.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9343152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Benched gods32c158$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013219.7%26 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Benched gods57c149$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.224,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Benched gods49c142.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017146.2%79 W · 92 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Benched gods61c135$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.762,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked NEW VISION33c133.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.062,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked NEW VISION37c130.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.072,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3147…d561backed Benched gods53c128.34$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Benched gods36c120.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4626554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Benched gods53c119.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.11,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Benched gods54c115$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.43,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked NEW VISION66c114.41$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.418159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Benched gods70c105.71$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7423038.3%88 W · 142 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked NEW VISION65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2872353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed Benched gods32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3233048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Benched gods54c97.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9183543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Benched gods40c94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Benched gods51c93.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9141853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Benched gods58c76.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.072,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdc…dbe6backed Benched gods67c74.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036749.3%181 W · 186 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Benched gods47c72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8920742.5%88 W · 119 L-17.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked NEW VISION55c70.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9811460.5%69 W · 45 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Benched gods32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16820.6%14 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf20…1881backed NEW VISION28c66.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.153732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb140…ce3dbacked NEW VISION54c64.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.328351.8%43 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Benched gods63c61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.162,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Benched gods56c59.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5335153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Benched gods63c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.912,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed NEW VISION76c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.245465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed Benched gods70c54.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked NEW VISION76c53.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.813371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc121…121cbacked Benched gods58c51.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Benched gods49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.533146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb400…78e2backed Benched gods65c45.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.586959.4%41 W · 28 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Benched gods50c43.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9724152.3%126 W · 115 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed Benched gods56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.417044.1%75 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde55…1d2abacked Benched gods60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209060%54 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Benched gods73c32.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,31551.1%672 W · 643 L-99.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed Benched gods71c31.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2840457.2%231 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ba…1a3cbacked Benched gods50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked NEW VISION57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3221254.2%115 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe37f…6635backed Benched gods71c25.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.053161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2d…2be7backed NEW VISION40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+71.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Benched gods54c24.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25973%18 W · 579 L-221.0wins-0.37per pick40cpaid-90.7%equal weight11-0.36 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Benched gods62c24.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567547.3%319 W · 356 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked NEW VISION53c21.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.874,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Benched gods75c20.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.628153.1%43 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd13c…98a7backed Benched gods70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.955554.5%30 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Benched gods70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413244.7%59 W · 73 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed NEW VISION62c16.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1316361.3%100 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.