TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NEW VISIONof NEW VISION, Benched gods
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a5b…d1ddbacked NEW VISION65c10,425$6,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,696.033171%22 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Benched gods54c7,889$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.591,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Benched gods33c6,883$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.982,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Benched gods35c3,019$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.931,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed NEW VISION70c2,730$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.932,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked NEW VISION67c2,533$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.5992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Benched gods37c2,498$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.923,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed NEW VISION57c2,453$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.021,37766.4%914 W · 463 L+77.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked NEW VISION42c2,360$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.6750349.3%248 W · 255 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked NEW VISION50c2,245$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.542,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Benched gods52c2,003$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.171,11054.2%602 W · 508 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Benched gods30c1,806$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.622,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Benched gods49c1,782$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.361,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Benched gods55c1,678$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.581,04153.1%553 W · 488 L+63.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NEW VISION47c1,597$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.647,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed NEW VISION43c1,542$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.9339245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Benched gods2c1,463$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.172645.6%331 W · 395 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed NEW VISION32c1,411$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.681,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Benched gods33c1,341$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.15,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Benched gods31c1,280$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.13,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8112…1e6fbacked Benched gods53c1,131$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Benched gods53c1,000$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.132,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked NEW VISION50c905.22$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.922,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a90…7e68backed Benched gods57c900.25$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.932958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed NEW VISION65c871.95$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.6330155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Benched gods53c781.22$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9531043.9%136 W · 174 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed NEW VISION44c700.66$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8938839.4%153 W · 235 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Benched gods49c649.63$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.0325039.6%99 W · 151 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Benched gods57c640.59$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.1328440.5%115 W · 169 L-17.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed NEW VISION53c638.7$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.632,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked NEW VISION50c626.61$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.982,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Benched gods39c614.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.351,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed NEW VISION49c578.14$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.564,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed NEW VISION54c538.65$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.936,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Benched gods38c523.28$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.41,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ea…7668backed NEW VISION59c509.89$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.893976.9%30 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed NEW VISION34c501$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.035,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed NEW VISION40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30037845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NEW VISION42c440.57$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.935,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed NEW VISION57c433.36$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3970060.1%421 W · 279 L+70.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed NEW VISION69c432.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2822567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb6…5154backed Benched gods48c417.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Benched gods47c409.01$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8376933.8%260 W · 509 L-48.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Benched gods51c399.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.962,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…de73backed Benched gods71c395.24$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Benched gods51c385.88$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.642748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed Benched gods57c372.78$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1114250%71 W · 71 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Benched gods57c348.96$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9148939.7%194 W · 295 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Benched gods44c334.11$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.364,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked NEW VISION60c331.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8214153.9%76 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…9a43backed NEW VISION64c322$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1168970.8%63 W · 26 L+19.3wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+46%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked NEW VISION42c316$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.1844747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed NEW VISION47c285.29$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.592,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf292…a6d3backed NEW VISION64c262.71$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.183961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f73…5b47backed Benched gods58c258.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Benched gods53c230$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.164,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe766…7843backed NEW VISION51c223.18$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4112531.2%39 W · 86 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Benched gods38c221.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.532,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed NEW VISION38c221.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0289630.7%275 W · 621 L-64.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Benched gods39c220$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.83,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed NEW VISION34c219$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.421,12142.5%476 W · 645 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Benched gods52c211$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.542,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Benched gods25c204.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9838032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Benched gods52c199.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.171,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked NEW VISION55c199.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9912744.1%56 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Benched gods59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040455.4%224 W · 180 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed NEW VISION31c164$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.32,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Benched gods57c162.81$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.81,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked NEW VISION31c162$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7835131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Benched gods28c154.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.392,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3147…d561backed NEW VISION60c152.7$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Benched gods66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9929447.3%139 W · 155 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b2…f252backed Benched gods51c149.72$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…02fdbacked Benched gods69c145.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Benched gods52c143$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.093,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed NEW VISION46c142$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3751446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Benched gods48c135.89$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.42,60552.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f0c…a98fbacked Benched gods45c131.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.875848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Benched gods32c125.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6216752.1%87 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked NEW VISION77c120.4$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.041,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2e…b387backed NEW VISION59c119.87$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.574362.8%27 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Benched gods48c118.18$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.622,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Benched gods45c101.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512540%50 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Benched gods56c100.9$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.526648.5%129 W · 137 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Benched gods60c100.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.332857.9%190 W · 138 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Benched gods55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5592145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbabf…320bbacked NEW VISION70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked NEW VISION41c96.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.471,63243.2%705 W · 927 L-32.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Benched gods58c93.37$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1545565.9%300 W · 155 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Benched gods35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.525643.4%111 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked Benched gods55c80$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4415060.7%91 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed NEW VISION62c79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6449843%214 W · 284 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Benched gods45c78.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4526854.5%146 W · 122 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Benched gods56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1612071.7%86 W · 34 L+16.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed NEW VISION54c72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7812948.1%62 W · 67 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed Benched gods74c70$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.751,08737.5%408 W · 679 L+33.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Benched gods44c62.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4820745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2d…a82dbacked Benched gods28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.94856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked Benched gods66c58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2818055%99 W · 81 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked NEW VISION55c52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4710937.6%41 W · 68 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.