TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NEW VISIONof NEW VISION, Benched gods
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Benched gods73c39,259$28,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,474.581,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5b…d1ddbacked NEW VISION38c29,703$11,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,371.13171%22 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked NEW VISION39c14,215$5,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,634.5792456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed NEW VISION47c10,382$4,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,524.6341050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf292…a6d3backed NEW VISION24c10,000$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,558.913961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Benched gods67c6,104$4,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,086.195,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed NEW VISION31c4,961$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,440.622,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Benched gods57c4,863$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.923,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Benched gods73c4,804$3,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,522.12,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Benched gods41c4,126$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.542,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805d…f780backed NEW VISION30c3,427$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.512853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe222…6019backed NEW VISION27c3,042$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.414450%22 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Benched gods68c2,500$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.543,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Benched gods74c2,431$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.821,01753.4%543 W · 474 L+65.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Benched gods71c2,233$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.331,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Benched gods37c2,145$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.451,64332.8%539 W · 1,104 L-48.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Benched gods53c2,120$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.613,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…570ebacked NEW VISION55c1,902$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.281963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Benched gods30c1,799$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.32,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed NEW VISION39c1,768$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.3221545.6%98 W · 117 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9b…efabbacked NEW VISION58c1,725$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.772657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa28a…01c5backed NEW VISION53c1,655$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.254459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Benched gods72c1,652$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.431,08354.2%587 W · 496 L+39.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed NEW VISION31c1,598$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.1923356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Benched gods45c1,397$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.551,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked NEW VISION27c1,332$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.5426554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Benched gods71c1,294$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.737,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed NEW VISION41c1,019$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.2328743.2%124 W · 163 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Benched gods59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed NEW VISION22c1,000$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77521350.2%107 W · 106 L+16.0wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed NEW VISION29c999.97$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9830155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Benched gods73c996$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.6538032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbabf…320bbacked NEW VISION27c864$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.081050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed NEW VISION64c856.79$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.6613857.2%79 W · 59 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Benched gods70c823.12$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.962,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed NEW VISION27c820$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.635153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Benched gods54c757$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.392,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x54bc…b4e9backed NEW VISION25c709.32$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.474845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Benched gods38c612.59$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.512,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Benched gods39c594$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8448543.1%209 W · 276 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Benched gods69c569.06$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.692,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a3…1753backed NEW VISION35c529.01$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.637159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Benched gods45c520$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0611242%47 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed NEW VISION68c519.79$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.431,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4a…c078backed NEW VISION30c499.24$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0812271.3%87 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed NEW VISION41c494.24$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.7613148.9%64 W · 67 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Benched gods40c486$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.922,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Benched gods52c394.51$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.641,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Benched gods71c378.02$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.642,60352.6%1,370 W · 1,233 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked NEW VISION28c371.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.4711460.5%69 W · 45 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb140…ce3dbacked NEW VISION29c363.92$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.928351.8%43 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…9a43backed NEW VISION29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.838369.9%58 W · 25 L+17.4wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+42.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfadf…8c2cbacked NEW VISION67c328$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.842969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6575…c2c7backed NEW VISION61c326.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.891770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed Benched gods25c321.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8032243.5%140 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Benched gods70c309.81$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.32,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Benched gods32c307.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043137.8%163 W · 268 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Benched gods68c275$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.172,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6d…2f1abacked Benched gods37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Benched gods61c252.11$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.524,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Benched gods64c248.32$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.414,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked NEW VISION29c245$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9514153.9%76 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a2…b9d9backed Benched gods42c235.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.841450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked NEW VISION32c234.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5419252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed NEW VISION51c233.93$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9132748.6%159 W · 168 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Benched gods62c211.76$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.733,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Benched gods67c206.86$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.044,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Benched gods59c204$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.651,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Benched gods62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Benched gods74c194$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.481,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Benched gods40c169.1$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6717146.2%79 W · 92 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed NEW VISION42c163.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.312,46724.6%606 W · 1,861 L-318.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked Benched gods53c158.29$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6522454.5%122 W · 102 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Benched gods32c158$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013219.7%26 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdde5…d1acbacked NEW VISION65c153.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.437045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Benched gods71c140$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.451446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccdc…dbe6backed NEW VISION37c133.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5536349.6%180 W · 183 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Benched gods74c133.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.629349.5%46 W · 47 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Benched gods59c114.37$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.72,20547.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L-4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Benched gods61c112.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.862,08447%979 W · 1,105 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Benched gods78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked Benched gods42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215355.6%85 W · 68 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c97…61debacked Benched gods23c84.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Benched gods62c82.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2861047.7%291 W · 319 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked NEW VISION63c79.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3115060.7%91 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb491…4400backed Benched gods21c79.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.061010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+91.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked NEW VISION24c76.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.424939.8%99 W · 150 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2e…b387backed NEW VISION66c75.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.934362.8%27 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Benched gods32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16820.6%14 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1110…ea61backed NEW VISION53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3313063.1%82 W · 48 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…1071backed NEW VISION29c64.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.86962.3%43 W · 26 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Benched gods32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041439.1%162 W · 252 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked Benched gods31c57.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.518048.8%39 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Benched gods36c53.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1130841.6%128 W · 180 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf20…1881backed NEW VISION36c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.183732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Benched gods71c49.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4641853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2b…cec3backed Benched gods41c47.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.428045%36 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7262backed Benched gods40c44.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.784254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Benched gods47c43.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.595922.9%17 W · 575 L-219.6wins-0.37per pick40cpaid-90.9%equal weight10-0.36 edge/pick
0xd43c…6003backed NEW VISION30c43.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.332450%12 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.