Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4602156ff458aaefe27433cc1a380f5872b8b1599b95c5af48081705d997c1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 61c | 1,020$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.86 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 29c | 736.52$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 72c | 564.39$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.6 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 449.85$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 42c | 406.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 289.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 67c | 239.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 38c | 237.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 201.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 179.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 54c | 161.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 69c | 153.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 131.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 22c | 129$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 49c | 122.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 119.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 40c | 118.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 113.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 16c | 109.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 24c | 101.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 39c | 99.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 98.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 50c | 98.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 96.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 94.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 82.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 55c | 82.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 77.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 49c | 66.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 65.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 61c | 63.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 75c | 62.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…076ebacked Yes | 51c | 62.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 57.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed No | 39c | 46.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 43.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 45c | 38.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 54c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 69c | 31.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 70c | 31.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 38c | 29.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…a784backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed No | 73c | 27.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 52c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 43c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 56c | 25.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 58c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 59c | 17.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 77c | 16.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.