Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4607c4f04580566f257708a91992ea5b134a609614477d0dd2d771f25c737aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,922 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 1c | 52,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…aa5cbacked No | 2c | 7,960$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…f8fabacked No | 2c | 2,040$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…4987backed No | 2c | 1,479$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 1,349$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 78c | 1,312$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…43a2backed No | 2c | 1,173$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…bd6bbacked No | 2c | 1,009$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 6c | 808.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 23c | 588.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 2c | 584.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 17c | 583.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 70c | 534.48$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 5c | 521.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 76c | 497.97$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 61c | 406.16$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 19c | 404.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 20c | 403.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 62c | 395$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 386.58$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked No | 3c | 370.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 5c | 351.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 77c | 336.27$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 72c | 328.78$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 78c | 305.18$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…851abacked No | 4c | 300.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…405dbacked No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 75c | 298.57$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 77c | 293.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 74c | 286.8$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 8c | 243.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 236.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 6c | 235.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 221$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 203.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 70c | 188.9$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 188.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…9297backed No | 6c | 186.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 76c | 184.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 6c | 180.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 172.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 48c | 163.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…636fbacked Yes | 75c | 157.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 151.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…58c5backed No | 66c | 141.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d5…1374backed No | 30c | 141.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 137.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 8c | 133.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 112.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 33c | 97.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 58c | 93.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 14c | 92.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked No | 55c | 91.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 61c | 81.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 78.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c89…ab67backed Yes | 47c | 71.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 45c | 69.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 60c | 67.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc858…2c16backed No | 62c | 64.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6140backed No | 26c | 58.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…7921backed Yes | 64c | 56.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked No | 27c | 52.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 50.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed Yes | 80c | 50.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e2…5741backed Yes | 40c | 49.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 41c | 49.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 41c | 48.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 40c | 46.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 42c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 58c | 43.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 79c | 42.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95df…83b7backed Yes | 48c | 42.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 71c | 40.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 40c | 40.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 74c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 51c | 38.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 62c | 38.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…a625backed No | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 45c | 35.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 35.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed Yes | 38c | 35.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…6d3fbacked Yes | 45c | 34.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 49c | 33.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 41c | 33.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.