Us Politics · resolved market
Will more than 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4628f0afca36ff408a4724e13ecd4c657e40044f2d3bfb47d87d08f6e6adae4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd280…82b3backed No | 12c | 1,420$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,350$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 25c | 1,147$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.33 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 22c | 1,036$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.06 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 39c | 769.59$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.69 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 740$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 438$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.32 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 12c | 313.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.18 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 40c | 269.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 76c | 203$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…f660backed Yes | 21c | 182$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…21b8backed Yes | 23c | 131.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 27c | 116$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 104.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 77c | 101.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…caa2backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 30.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 56c | 30.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 52c | 22.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…04e0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will more than 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?this page
- Will exactly 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?No won
- Will exactly 6 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?No won
- Will exactly 8 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?No won
- Will exactly 9 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?No won
- Will fewer than 5 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.