Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x466dd5e4341ea486a28b6facc8788eee0ce15fff2b39d45b56fbeb057c40abaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 36c | 1,040$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.63 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 5c | 911.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 727.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 3c | 581.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 4c | 548$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 67c | 547.35$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.87 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 499.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 447.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked No | 80c | 442.27$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 410.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 5c | 390.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 6c | 348.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 40c | 271.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 260.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 40c | 198.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 27c | 196.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 187.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 183.61$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 169.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 144.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 130.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 126.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 125.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 120.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 114.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 39c | 114.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 18c | 114$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 110.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…8bc3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed No | 60c | 98.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 93.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…0368backed Yes | 22c | 90.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 84.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed Yes | 33c | 75.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 68.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 64.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 62.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 39c | 59.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 58.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 22c | 50.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 45.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 41.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 40.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 29c | 35.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 38c | 34.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 39c | 34.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 32.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 31c | 31.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 78c | 28.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 80c | 28.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 70c | 24.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 63c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 23.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 66c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 79c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.