Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ea52b6ef9d7c1834cb0137685bdbda945bb2e408883a2a07974f21e8189dbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,851$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.72 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 22c | 1,537$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.48 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…e48ebacked No | 75c | 1,148$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 21c | 690.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 664.12$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 608.44$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 35c | 597.31$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 10c | 583.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 574.88$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 79c | 543.94$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 527.47$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 514.59$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 490.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 464.55$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 29c | 461.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 72c | 430.85$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 30c | 414.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 20c | 405.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 380.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 376.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 27c | 375.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 370$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 79c | 288.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 14c | 285.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 275.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 73c | 272.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 265.21$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 34c | 260.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 12c | 247.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 206.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 56c | 192.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 178.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 168.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 28c | 165.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 156$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 155.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 153.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 135.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 131.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 74c | 130.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 128.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 11c | 125.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 30c | 120.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 10c | 115.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 75c | 115.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 17c | 114.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 21c | 107.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 19c | 105.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 102.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 18c | 100.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 26c | 97.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 45c | 97.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 96.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 95.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 53c | 94.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 29c | 94.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 86.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…14afbacked No | 66c | 86.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 86.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 48c | 83.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 77.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 76.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 23c | 75.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 69.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 65.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 46c | 65.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 18c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 64.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 62.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked No | 47c | 59.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 68c | 58.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…273fbacked Yes | 24c | 57.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 55.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 54.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 52.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 50.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 28c | 50.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.