TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes49c1,255$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.7831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes21c1,028$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.9339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No50c666.48$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.144,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No55c608.79$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.631,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No27c602.08$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c600.45$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.543,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c578.27$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8c…23c8backed No60c565.39$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.797762.3%48 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c538.31$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No4c499.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c472.77$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c465.74$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.641,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes51c462.39$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8811436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes12c425.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.0323429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes51c416.49$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c402.81$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes42c399.26$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.666533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c372$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No13c357.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.546,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes70c357.44$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.591637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c357$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.893,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No54c344.54$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9317858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes25c340.25$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.044621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes50c327.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.589238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.839747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa826…f980backed No69c291.45$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c289$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.185,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes30c284.84$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.0445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe62c…adc5backed No64c263.38$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.081275%9 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes41c252.41$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c251.01$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.025,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes34c208.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.973259.4%19 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c205.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.52,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c201.27$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.453,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes13c200$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes36c199.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.995349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes79c197.34$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No52c189.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.64,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c187.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.874,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c179.09$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.653,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No59c178.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes46c176.84$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.842,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes51c174.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6538454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c169.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes33c164.92$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.922846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.617747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No25c152.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.412,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes40c150.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.669832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c144.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes37c143.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.542,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked No50c142.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes51c132.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6613838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c128.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.883,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes35c128.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes43c127.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.821,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes40c125.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9520339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Yes41c124.41$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4115841.8%66 W · 92 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No45c120.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3913551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes49c119.83$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1914243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No22c114.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.612,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes11c111.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6833…2011backed Yes46c109.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c109$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.512,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c102.66$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.432,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3614233.1%47 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes43c99.59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.591,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No51c96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9627461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes34c95.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.771241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes48c94.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0225135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No51c94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No54c93.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0412046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes54c91.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.358350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa967…79a5backed Yes42c89.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.558050%40 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No66c89.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9216543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes41c88.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No64c87.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.062,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc81f…4a4bbacked No52c76.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.641942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes48c75.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.181,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No60c75.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.761,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes51c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.751,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No58c73.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.712,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No52c73.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc9a…1757backed No51c70.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.982748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4819…273fbacked Yes23c70.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c69.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.991,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes35c67.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes76c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.633561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No59c64.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.451,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes49c62.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0318650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c62.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.22,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No49c62.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6517947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes38c62.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No50c60.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.261,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.456048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3daf…15d6backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64734%16 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.193,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes32c59.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.211,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes51c58.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.