Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3015f6d91ac37ad8a24732f1a7fdd758584a58823399913fe24610353b6cb3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,255$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.78 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 1,028$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.93 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 666.48$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 608.79$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 602.08$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 600.45$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 578.27$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 60c | 565.39$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.79 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 538.31$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 472.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 465.74$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.64 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 51c | 462.39$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 12c | 425.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.03 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 51c | 416.49$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.31 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 402.81$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 42c | 399.26$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.66 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 372$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 357.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 70c | 357.44$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 357$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 54c | 344.54$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 25c | 340.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 50c | 327.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.83 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f980backed No | 69c | 291.45$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 289$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 30c | 284.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 64c | 263.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 252.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.86 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 251.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 34c | 208.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 205.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 201.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 79c | 197.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 189.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 187.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 179.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 178.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 176.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 174.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 169.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 33c | 164.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 152.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 40c | 150.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 144.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 37c | 143.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked No | 50c | 142.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 51c | 132.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 128.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 128.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 127.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 125.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 41c | 124.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 45c | 120.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 49c | 119.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 114.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 11c | 111.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 46c | 109.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 102.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 99.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes | 34c | 95.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 48c | 94.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 54c | 93.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 54c | 91.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 42c | 89.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 66c | 89.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 88.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 87.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…4a4bbacked No | 52c | 76.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 75.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 75.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 73.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 51c | 70.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…273fbacked Yes | 23c | 70.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 35c | 67.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 64.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 62.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 62.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 62.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 38c | 62.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 60.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 59.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 51c | 58.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.