World Politics · resolved market
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468d2a45052a19334bd591db94acae2a55294e337ad2fb7c2a49430cd244a811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $359,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $510,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 10,777$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 2c | 7,518$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…9b24backed Yes | 10c | 6,654$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,885$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…2395backed Yes | 3c | 4,309$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 2c | 3,763$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…4927backed Yes | 8c | 3,588$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…b013backed Yes | 8c | 3,576$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 3,353$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.21 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 2,988$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdffd…7075backed Yes | 4c | 2,632$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c3…647abacked Yes | 4c | 1,954$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +229.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,780$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd740…1922backed Yes | 1c | 1,455$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,451$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 4c | 1,416$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 6c | 1,323$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 2c | 1,299$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,197$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1c…18e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,169$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 1,162$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 1,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 2c | 995.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…8185backed Yes | 2c | 955.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 2c | 903.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 7c | 857.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 812.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 2c | 767.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 3c | 760.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 2c | 757.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…b9d8backed Yes | 2c | 624.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 563.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 511.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 6c | 482.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…b2c4backed Yes | 8c | 480$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 316.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…1124backed Yes | 4c | 268.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 259.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 215.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde5…5f5fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 44c | 153.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.