Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4690d5d8ce7b2d69fcb9a39f17c32135cb9f58e0a986dadb21d7be6ed1c26273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 75c | 448.91$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 315.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 311.55$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 280.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 268$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 16c | 254.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 24c | 249.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.74 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 48c | 237.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 70c | 227.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 34c | 224.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 208$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 195.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 190.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 185.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 180.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 180$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 28c | 173.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 164.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 153.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 33c | 151.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 41c | 147.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 25c | 144.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 32c | 132.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 25c | 123.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 105.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 30c | 99.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 98.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 97.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 29c | 97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 94.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 92.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 77.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 22c | 77.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 76.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 75.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 75.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 72c | 73.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 73.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 69.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 17c | 69.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 67.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 63.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 76c | 61.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 57.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 56.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 19c | 56.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 70c | 55.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 50.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 49.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 69c | 47.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 46.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 40.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 30c | 39.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 79c | 38.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 37.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 31.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 50c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…171bbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 70c | 29.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…0a67backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 21.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 20.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 20.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.