Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x675becb05ce22d34db55bf7df3783f9f447672fb659b364cf394f9cd0107b1d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 77c | 896.65$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.64 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes | 3c | 512.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 396.71$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 335.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 318.7$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 20c | 315.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 64c | 283.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 80c | 250.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 56c | 210.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 43c | 195.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 54c | 194$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 180.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 180$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 55c | 162$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 10c | 140.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 139.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 138.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 58c | 134.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 132.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 129.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 129$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 45c | 125.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 50c | 113.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 103.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 102.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 65c | 85.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 84.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 55c | 76.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 72.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 40c | 67.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 45c | 65.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 46c | 64.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 45c | 63.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 45c | 62.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 34c | 57.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 56.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 53.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 56c | 52.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…72e2backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 48.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 46.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 51c | 46.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…70b7backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 44.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 39c | 40.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 40.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 40.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 58c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 46c | 37.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 34c | 37.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 36.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 58c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…015abacked No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 59c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 32.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 31.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…908abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 48c | 29.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes | 55c | 28.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 28.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 25.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…870cbacked Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 64c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…65bbbacked No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 61c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 61c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.