TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes77c896.65$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.6427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes3c512.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes50c396.71$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.731,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c335.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.915,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c318.7$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No20c315.09$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No64c283.98$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5739966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes80c250.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes56c210.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1522746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes43c195.28$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.840237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No54c194$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c180.04$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c180$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.155,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No55c162$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.213444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes10c140.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.587047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c139.63$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.362,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c138.39$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.195,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes58c134.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6540226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c132.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No51c129.14$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.345,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c129$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.776,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No45c125.33$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.534746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.623,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes50c113.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7217443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes50c103.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c102.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4926540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5417637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.519052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No65c85.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c84.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.23,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes25c77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.152,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd036…4b27backed Yes55c76.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.91330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c72.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No40c67.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.994942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No45c65.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.934148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No46c64.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.84546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No45c63.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.995337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No45c62.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.176448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.615345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No34c57.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes48c56.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.641,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No45c54.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No53c53.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.921,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes56c52.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes40c50.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05bd…72e2backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed No27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.425042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c48.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No57c47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c46.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.373,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes51c46.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x608f…70b7backed Yes44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes37c44.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4919734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes39c40.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.917732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes30c40.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.171,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No47c40.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.12,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes58c38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.917628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes46c37.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.453450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No34c37.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c36.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No58c35.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.979255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No57c35.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.082,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No53c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b4…015abacked No44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes59c32.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3452446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No56c32.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.431,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes50c31.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes38c30.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.783528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No65c30.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8982268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No65c30.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8716263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa11…908abacked Yes60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked Yes48c29.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes55c28.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.861353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes41c28.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No41c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.241,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes42c25.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.745236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1387…24a7backed Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c24.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.372,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f32…870cbacked Yes55c23.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No64c20.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…3a35backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3edb…65bbbacked No51c19.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.611266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e7f…7980backed No61c18.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.374551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes61c18.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.360519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No77c15.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.422,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.