Fifa International · resolved market
Michael Olise: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a6b79576e55142ed0ca7091769760cfb208d083c0d15cbd8bbe0e60485f94b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Yes | 16c | 2,568$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 146 | 20.5%30 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…78c7backed Yes | 17c | 1,776$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…ab05backed Yes | 16c | 606.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 283 | 37.1%105 W · 178 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 283.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 16c | 192.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…56b8backed Yes | 16c | 174.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…ae45backed Yes | 15c | 131.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 15.5%39 W · 212 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…9136backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…4453backed Yes | 16c | 94.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc3…10aebacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f58…626fbacked Yes | 16c | 92.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Yes | 15c | 85.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 145 | 26.2%38 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…4a34backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michael Olise: 2+ goalsthis page
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assistsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shotsYes won
- Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ shotsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 3+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 3+ shotsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goalsNo won
- Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 3+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ assistsYes won
- Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ assistsYes won
- Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 1+ assistsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 1+ shotsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 3+ goalsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Warren Zaïre-Emery: 3+ goalsNo won
- Warren Zaïre-Emery: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.