Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ac884e354b623ea11092d5ff85823fc8e19a71026eae9d4f0685f468f27a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 14c | 279.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 240.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 68c | 232.66$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 232.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 63c | 209$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 140.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 136.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 14c | 127.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 118.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 35c | 97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 91.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 34c | 84.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 81.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 66.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 60.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 58.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 54.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 47.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 42.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 41.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 76c | 39.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 42c | 38.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 33.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 31.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 20.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 67c | 18.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed Yes | 78c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 77c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.