TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,140

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c1,415$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.571,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes32c926.79$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9117536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c484.35$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c399.69$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.878,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c321$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.724,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes20c262.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes39c259.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes32c236.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.329948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes35c236.28$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.71,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes18c233$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.561,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No68c225$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No62c181.75$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.034,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.251,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes12c145.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9915630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No67c124$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3789557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No67c106$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.462,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No75c103.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c102$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3243959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c97.53$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.039,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c95.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No73c91.5$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.92,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c89.44$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.225,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No61c88.03$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3356424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No64c87.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2725758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c85.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.948,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No61c79.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2918131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No66c78.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.71,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No73c72.66$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.342,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c71.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.733,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.444,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes37c64.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.797847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c58.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.24,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…9288backed No69c56.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6117262.2%107 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No67c56.76$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.641,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c52.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1627552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188023.8%19 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188717.2%15 W · 72 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No68c40.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9881558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes37c39.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.621,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9935…a6b4backed Yes41c36.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c34.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No65c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked No78c30.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9312072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.34665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No68c29.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No76c25.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.141,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No66c25.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.642366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No70c24.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3228360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No69c20.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.291,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.231766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0657…2b79backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x002d…47a2backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42777.8%21 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…e434backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42483.3%20 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06f…90acbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd99c…8490backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.626067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7525560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.219965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbdc…f5e4backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x903c…079bbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.44477.3%34 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc798…6254backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b67…3998backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd219…0412backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x239f…8b82backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.216065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20f2…a18ebacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e2…13e1backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbc…9feabacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No68c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.415961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c16.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.253,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No64c16.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9349359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.