Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b29b34627e96a6c09c9f64c556e9088620d79a58f939ba18f66b543b5ae988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 1,312$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 22c | 608.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.27 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 529.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 25c | 459.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 328.8$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 295.63$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 277.49$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 15c | 249.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 24c | 249.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 23c | 213.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 25c | 207.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 20c | 207.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…c15bbacked No | 79c | 204.28$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 187.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 41c | 187.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 21c | 183.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 173.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 37c | 172.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 172.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 155$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 151.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 139.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 32c | 136.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 132.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 17c | 130.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 26c | 128.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 114.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 29c | 112.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 21c | 102.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 99.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 95.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 23c | 94.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 94.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 92.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 92.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 89.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 33c | 80.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed No | 62c | 79.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…bf25backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 18c | 71.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked Yes | 25c | 65.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 58.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 65c | 56.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 55.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 36c | 54.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 52.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 71c | 51.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7389…9b89backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 21c | 49.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 48.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 59c | 46.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 40.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 38.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 73c | 38.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 79c | 35.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 33.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 32.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 77c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 27.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 59c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 70c | 22.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 64c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 78c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 77c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.