Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb529fdc86f4cd09aa5b57508713a536795729de9a17fa8163e304059cb37712f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 2,587$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 2c | 1,479$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,009$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 68c | 933.92$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.8 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 667.16$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 10c | 581$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 25c | 463.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 72c | 415.07$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 389.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 51c | 374.93$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.82 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 51c | 336$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 320.94$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 70c | 320.83$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 32c | 319.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 77c | 301.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 33c | 298.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 296.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 65c | 290.4$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.34 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 38c | 273.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 39c | 267.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 253.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 252.75$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 245.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 79c | 237.91$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 76c | 207.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 24c | 192.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 31c | 189.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 187.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 40c | 185.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 185.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 62c | 185.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 176.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 41c | 175.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 173$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 63c | 171.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.37 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 47c | 170.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 170.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 51c | 163.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 157$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 13c | 156.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 32c | 149.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 65c | 149.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 144.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 52c | 137.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 136.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 129.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 123.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 30c | 119.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 119.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked Yes | 42c | 119.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 114.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 32c | 113.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 37c | 113.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 104.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 51c | 103.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 102.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 99.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 98.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 31c | 95.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 50c | 91.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 88.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…bf25backed Yes | 31c | 87.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 38c | 86.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 83.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 17c | 82.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 82.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 78.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 72.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 70.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 41c | 68.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 68c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 70c | 66.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 70c | 63.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 57.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 55.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 42c | 55.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 67c | 54.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 53.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 69c | 48.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 48.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 57c | 46.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 44.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.