Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43c10d5f22e33be434df15fd5cb3797762ac30c639d8002f28b32d561a2e059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 668$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 537.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 483.02$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 74c | 459.57$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 19c | 322.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 301.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.37 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 24c | 269.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 255.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 246.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 245$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 40c | 228.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 28c | 210.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 210$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 74c | 209.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 194.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 186.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 46c | 183.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 54c | 175.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 170.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 13c | 166.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 150.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 24c | 149.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 32c | 140.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 137.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 135.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 60c | 135.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 70c | 129.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…c15bbacked No | 79c | 126.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 124.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 118.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 113.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 30c | 104.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 70c | 104.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 102.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 99.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 98.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 31c | 95.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 94.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 89.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 42c | 89.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 87.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 78.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 75.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 74.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 73.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked Yes | 20c | 69.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 68.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 68.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 68.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 22c | 67.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 59.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 57.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 56.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 55.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 77c | 50.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 50.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 49.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 49.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 48.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 77c | 47.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 26c | 47.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 45.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…b306backed No | 33c | 45.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 44.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 39c | 38.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 47c | 38.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 56c | 37.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 52c | 36.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 43c | 35.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 33.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 62c | 30.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 28.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 58c | 28.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 26.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 24.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 68c | 23.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.