Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Lulu Sun vs Caty McNally
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473c15bc4dc3c1ce6d71fe378066ec32f2c3346a32600538fe80daecf79f6d1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunof Sun, McNally
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed McNally | 26c | 6,428$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.37 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…89a4backed McNally | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,449.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed McNally | 8c | 4,000$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed Sun | 48c | 3,782$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +84%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sun | 59c | 3,673$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.95 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…d4adbacked Sun | 44c | 3,431$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked McNally | 44c | 2,580$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.1 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked McNally | 10c | 1,956$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed McNally | 21c | 1,397$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…3bc3backed McNally | 43c | 1,382$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked McNally | 62c | 1,290$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed McNally | 42c | 1,064$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.69 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Sun | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Sun | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Sun | 59c | 999.3$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed McNally | 45c | 999$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…f211backed McNally | 44c | 947.73$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…14ccbacked Sun | 69c | 850.56$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Sun | 48c | 800$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed McNally | 45c | 762.24$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sun | 58c | 703.66$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.66 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…327abacked McNally | 47c | 664.14$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed McNally | 41c | 650$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sun | 56c | 634.45$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.56 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sun | 44c | 484.87$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.37 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed McNally | 35c | 459.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed McNally | 44c | 445.45$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed McNally | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked McNally | 17c | 313.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed McNally | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked McNally | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked McNally | 47c | 264.07$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed McNally | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24be…e742backed McNally | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Sun | 69c | 229.79$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed McNally | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Sun | 58c | 198.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked McNally | 38c | 170.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Sun | 58c | 166.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Sun | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 511 | 42.9%219 W · 292 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Sun | 33c | 160.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked McNally | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Sun | 64c | 135.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked McNally | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Sun | 62c | 112.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed McNally | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…309ebacked Sun | 64c | 104.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…8a4ebacked McNally | 65c | 102.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Sun | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Sun | 62c | 96.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…747cbacked McNally | 40c | 93.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…95ccbacked Sun | 68c | 91.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Sun | 66c | 71.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Sun | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked McNally | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…b5cbbacked Sun | 68c | 65.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sun | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked McNally | 53c | 50.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Sun | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Sun | 67c | 47.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed McNally | 43c | 44.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked McNally | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…3fd9backed Sun | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Sun | 67c | 38.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Sun | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked McNally | 40c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked Sun | 59c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Sun | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked McNally | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…cfb4backed Sun | 56c | 23.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…65aabacked McNally | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed McNally | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…011cbacked Sun | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…a087backed Sun | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…8384backed Sun | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.