Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4744a4a56446191b6ee79c60207dc9cd47701b37b8ba1695ea40df75acc2736a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 54c | 2,547$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.39 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Yes | 54c | 1,801$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.34 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 50c | 1,704$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.91 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked No | 73c | 1,348$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.8 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 994.27$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.93 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed No | 38c | 918.97$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.14 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes | 29c | 890.32$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.09 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 841.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.63 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked No | 73c | 808.6$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.28 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 45c | 657.03$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.72 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 37c | 583.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 485.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.23 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked No | 73c | 404.3$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.14 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 402.01$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 346.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 26c | 322.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Yes | 63c | 307.94$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 55c | 243.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Yes | 63c | 194.01$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 63c | 176.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 28c | 168.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 61c | 160.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…f880backed Yes | 66c | 147.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…8f09backed No | 73c | 142.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 27c | 140.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 53c | 134.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 80c | 123.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 78c | 109.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 53c | 97.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Yes | 60c | 97.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 61c | 93.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Yes | 28c | 88.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 27c | 88.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 44c | 86.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 28c | 79.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 31c | 78.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 32c | 76.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Yes | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 47c | 63.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 32c | 61.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 32c | 52.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 46.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…4f90backed Yes | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 64c | 40.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…9a07backed No | 75c | 37.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked No | 48c | 35.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Yes | 60c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 63cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 26.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Yes | 68c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 79cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 73c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-22?this page
- Will FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.