Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474a7af818c8633b74e9ac7ff7fedd356e28ccbefcf2eebd62b2b959f9e7bd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 2,904$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 1,087$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 271.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 234$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 219.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 45c | 217.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 213.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 157.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 142.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 136.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 136.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 30c | 134.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 121.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 115.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 29c | 103.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 76.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 72.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 65.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…57f2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 31c | 58.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 54.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 30c | 51.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 50.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 49.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 73c | 45.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 69c | 41.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 32.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 72c | 29.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 24.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 68c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 71c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.