Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4863b03e1b1341024cddd85f8eef51714ae01f63382d991aa7cba528e543d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 461.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 293.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 231.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 228.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 211.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 49c | 173.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 55c | 173.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 43c | 152.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 145.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 115.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 115.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 97.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 77.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 43c | 77.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 20c | 75.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 66.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 54.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 54.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa481…f126backed Yes | 43c | 53.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 52.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 52.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 49.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 58c | 48.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 42.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 42c | 41.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 40.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 42c | 40.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…53d5backed No | 58c | 36.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 36.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 50c | 35.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed Yes | 43c | 31.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 44c | 31.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 29.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 27.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked No | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 50c | 23.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 58c | 23.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 53c | 20.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.