Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475dbe71dfd4af9f54d022f8e0014b7c37b56543c177e6077671873c8b7f57a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buseof Fonseca, Buse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed Fonseca | 56c | 4,877$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.07 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Buse | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Buse | 42c | 899.57$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.1 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Buse | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Buse | 41c | 660.72$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.3 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…a7f7backed Fonseca | 57c | 529.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Fonseca | 60c | 398.01$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.83 | 285 | 52.3%149 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Buse | 51c | 382.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fonseca | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Fonseca | 58c | 313.22$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Fonseca | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9f0abacked Buse | 44c | 284.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Buse | 44c | 248$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fonseca | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Buse | 44c | 182$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Buse | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Fonseca | 59c | 172.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Buse | 43c | 139.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Buse | 61c | 116.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Buse | 43c | 107.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Fonseca | 49c | 96.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…aef6backed Fonseca | 55c | 91.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Buse | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Fonseca | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Buse | 42c | 80.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Fonseca | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Buse | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Fonseca | 44c | 56.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…b910backed Fonseca | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Buse | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Buse | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Fonseca | 51c | 39.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Fonseca | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…158cbacked Fonseca | 57c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…b89abacked Fonseca | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…6c5ebacked Buse | 44c | 23.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fonseca | 55c | 19.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)this page
- Fonseca vs. Buse: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Buse: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Buse: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio BuseBuse won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs BuseFonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.