World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475fe47afc37f4fd78fdffa285bd6517df411b1c3be9898dcda43bbcd8ab1cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,498$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.55 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 945.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.45 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 640.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.08 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 16c | 564.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.79 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 33c | 502.29$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.33 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 489.68$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.98 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 485$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.45 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 465.39$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.55 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 16c | 431.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 423$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.92 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 396.17$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.37 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 366.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.69 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 329.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 296.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.83 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 287.46$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.12 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 255.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 246.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.84 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 32c | 240$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 9c | 239.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 237.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.23 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 218.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 13c | 198.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 30cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 197.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 20c | 182.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 178.49$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 166.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…4726backed No | 79c | 164.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 163.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 153.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 15c | 153.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 71c | 145.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 143.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 13c | 140.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 139$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 10c | 133$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 79c | 126.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 23c | 126.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…d453backed Yes | 11c | 117.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +800.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 109.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 16c | 105.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 105.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 11c | 105.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…cb18backed Yes | 13c | 103.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +629.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 12c | 97.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 14c | 96.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 94.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 14c | 88.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 21c | 84.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 83.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 79.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 78.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 74.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…9fffbacked Yes | 21c | 72.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +385%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 65.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 19c | 57.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 75c | 54.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 45.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 58c | 45.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 73c | 35.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…6741backed No | 70c | 34.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 45c | 27.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…86c9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd0…824dbacked No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 74c | 16.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.