World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf6afd6dacaf836d428046f0f58b0e53159123ac47baa62c82e63cb9c565437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 3c | 2,504$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 4c | 1,144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 663.19$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 507.34$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 31c | 412.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 320.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…05f7backed No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 27c | 292.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 289.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 271.35$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 267.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 266.65$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 230$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 27c | 228.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 221.28$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 213.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 211.44$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 21c | 175$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 37c | 173.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 31c | 171.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 160.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 155.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 147.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 145.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4756…ef3fbacked Yes | 21c | 140.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 26c | 136.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 21c | 136.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 34c | 130.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 26c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…bedebacked No | 78c | 128.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 73c | 126.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…a311backed No | 72c | 118.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 23c | 107.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 27c | 101.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 100.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 99.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 95.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 93.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 22c | 86.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 23c | 85.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 84.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 79c | 76.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…0c47backed No | 66c | 75.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 71.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 71.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 20c | 69.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 21c | 65.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 18c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 23c | 62.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 24c | 62.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 60.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 59.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 57.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 56.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 56.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 50.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 50.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 25c | 48.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 25c | 47.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 45.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…ed9abacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 35c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 35c | 42.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes | 25c | 41.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 40.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 40.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…33c6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 38.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 34.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 32.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…97e1backed Yes | 38c | 31.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 31.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 67c | 31.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 68c | 29.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.