TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,170 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1387…24a7backed Yes3c2,504$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.411421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed Yes4c1,144$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes20c663.19$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes30c507.34$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.513040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed Yes31c412.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.022540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c320.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5d…05f7backed No78c300$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes27c292.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.911625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No70c289.44$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.094856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c271.35$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.766462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c267.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c266.65$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.243268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes33c230$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.951741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes27c228.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c221.28$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes8c213.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No80c211.44$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.485064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No62c199.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes21c175$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.257020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes37c173.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes31c171.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes23c160.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.794037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes16c155.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c147.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9621844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c145.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.217560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4756…ef3fbacked Yes21c140.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes26c136.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.363231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes21c136.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.756330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes34c130.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes26c130$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.351250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab9…bedebacked No78c128.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.72450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No73c126.86$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.694450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75f…a311backed No72c118.21$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes23c107.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.745837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes27c101.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.453943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No67c100.79$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1718158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.612737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No73c99.6$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4613155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c95.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1727521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes26c93.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.77944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes22c86.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.275135.3%18 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes23c85.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c84.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.374761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No79c76.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb64a…0c47backed No66c75.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c71.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7811039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-64.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes18c71.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.999123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes20c69.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes21c65.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes18c64.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6511053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes24c63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes23c62.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.242437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes24c62.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes21c60.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5916738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c59.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes38c57.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c56.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.857058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes21c56.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.788038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes37c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c50.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No72c50.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.073961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…f34bbacked No79c49.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3364…5effbacked Yes25c48.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes25c48.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes25c47.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.772045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No72c45.78$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.77842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa556…ed9abacked Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes35c43.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed Yes35c42.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c41.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.947582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes25c41.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c40.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.098235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes37c40.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c40.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2614954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe724…33c6backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c38.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2818035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No79c37.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.973262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No67c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0215954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No79c34.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.187561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c32.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.891968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb003…97e1backed Yes38c31.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No77c31.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4514656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No67c31.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.520065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.126355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No68c29.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.438741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No72c27.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No68c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5915056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No74c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.766566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9710640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No79c24.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.234052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No74c24.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4922355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.