MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x478afcf111fc8836037416d9784d9dc68f6bcdf75b0ecc7bdbfe0782b6c7ab9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 50c | 1,277$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.68 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 539.99$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.48 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 49c | 402.7$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Yes | 52c | 379.33$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 51c | 288$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 48c | 163.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked No | 50c | 153.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 54c | 98.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 50c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed No | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 51c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 57c | 48.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 69c | 47.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 55c | 40.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…c5fbbacked No | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 54c | 23.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…17a5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angelsthis page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles AngelsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.