Movies · resolved market
Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x479f7f46aa877400a43c81360fb500b4d7e5494f3745bb38d0221197dcd74e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 63c | 5,811$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.45 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 70c | 1,546$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.42 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,150$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.85 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 65c | 843.9$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.22 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 42c | 707.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 698.55$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.96 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 48c | 610$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.9 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 52c | 584.1$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.29 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 54c | 566.19$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 523.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 9c | 443.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 39c | 434.08$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 23c | 386.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 72c | 350$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 342.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 44c | 301.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 5c | 294.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…2287backed No | 72c | 202$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 61c | 200.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed No | 7c | 150.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 47c | 133.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 59c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 36c | 83.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 44.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 43.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…bd1fbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?this page
- Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 18m?No won
- Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.