Movies · resolved market
Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 18m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ccb3504923dadc4afd4589beb6de4872d25784acf866c30a1a0fb48e1843a75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 7,757$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 40c | 2,470$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.28 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,266$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 45c | 1,079$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.69 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 38c | 480$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 73c | 471$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 26c | 428.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 396.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 61c | 327.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 4c | 317.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 44c | 226.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 193.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 69c | 178.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 76.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 73c | 70.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 65c | 45.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 57c | 41.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5d87backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 33.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 33c | 30.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b4…6ecabacked Yes | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 18m?this page
- Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?No won
- Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.