TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,074,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab82…abe5backed Yes59c245,310$144,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,607.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No42c155,304$65,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,099.683,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No51c31,796$16,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,282.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No50c15,673$7,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,832.162,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No33c14,939$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,879.721540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes68c14,822$10,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,696.2133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked No34c11,785$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.136465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No44c11,577$5,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,058.9648141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No42c10,120$4,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,205.9275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed No51c9,911$5,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-50.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Yes66c9,000$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0604540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No54c8,601$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,619.591,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked No20c8,289$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.07742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed No32c7,660$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee0…9c9abacked No32c7,350$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3521250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+41.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2128…da98backed No33c6,992$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No34c6,935$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.9220548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No47c6,858$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.451,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No34c6,522$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.338547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e8b…11cabacked No31c6,133$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.2825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-61.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No31c5,861$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.9976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked No37c5,406$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.1311762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No53c5,265$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.4348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No37c5,119$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.9122669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No37c4,003$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.6749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No30c3,965$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed No34c3,875$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.24825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes68c3,733$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.563141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Yes51c3,596$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.98887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5249…848fbacked Yes69c3,500$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4957…a5fbbacked No31c3,500$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes25c3,427$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes68c3,256$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.8834547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d8…31cfbacked No50c3,078$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.832166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes54c3,000$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3852479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.995923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed No34c2,940$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.627349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No32c2,642$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.986126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Yes44c2,250$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.21683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed No37c2,162$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.93262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6809048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00010641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed No32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.989854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked No70c1,961$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.381770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Yes69c1,878$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.261050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39f6…abe1backed No37c1,846$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.062867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed No39c1,838$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.622433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked No37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes27c1,466$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.3223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes69c1,450$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.55455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed No37c1,397$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.815964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No53c1,382$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.447750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed No38c1,373$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.823644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No41c1,365$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.1317749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes60c1,335$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No37c1,327$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.9416060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes42c1,300$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.4610251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed No38c1,290$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.064163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked No30c1,236$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.944757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed No37c1,216$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505375.5%40 W · 13 L+10.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+41.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked No37c1,216$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.925358.5%31 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes68c1,216$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.0922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No32c1,178$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.973721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Yes23c1,069$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked No78c1,026$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.84153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5504436.4%16 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No31c999.9$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.976256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes68c990$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.6356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No32c976.24$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.1734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed No45c960.36$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.976752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No32c899.9$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No9c875.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…ed5fbacked Yes45c858.19$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.38977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+65.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes69c856.88$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.1549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4363…d6e0backed Yes67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed No55c790$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.55648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2738055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.294042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed No59c734.84$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x458c…ee3ebacked Yes69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.646100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7f…657ebacked No75c705.84$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.253125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked Yes51c699.95$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Yes69c695.65$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.651163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked Yes68c690.56$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No52c676.84$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.576860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes69c628.35$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7948146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0178…3f7abacked No37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked No70c598.16$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.053751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Yes51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.246546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e3…d1ffbacked Yes51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.241650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No58c559.7$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Yes22c545.45$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…32fcbacked Yes68c542.64$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.641080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No33c515.93$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.262941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Yes68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1605771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1709549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No31c499.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1558251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.