TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,035 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes34c47,918$16,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,413.2116045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes52c28,526$14,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,710.783,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes34c25,971$8,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,855.4610641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed No65c12,644$8,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.33644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No66c12,500$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,25016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed No58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.94887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes59c6,920$4,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,107.5548141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes38c6,434$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.787757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes43c6,401$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,751.6975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes13c6,000$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.0676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No79c5,602$4,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.892,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No66c5,062$3,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.78547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No66c5,060$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.4320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes41c4,864$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.71,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes14c3,733$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.623141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes13c3,653$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.8269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes13c3,162$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.561618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d8…31cfbacked No67c2,419$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.62166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Yes14c2,212$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No67c2,182$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.6111356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes46c2,007$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.221,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes13c1,683$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.766126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed No66c1,647$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.997349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes63c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes14c1,189$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3422047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35b…d8d0backed Yes58c929.25$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.31450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No59c888.14$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.1438055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked No57c877.6$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.65044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes39c824.15$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.4233737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No72c773.57$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.073056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes43c750$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.54630.4%14 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+85.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Yes3c677.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+81%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes41c614.63$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Yes50c601.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Yes46c562.48$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7411148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes16c533.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5414315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No50c522.61$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5924541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No74c522.03$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Yes36c503.72$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.276550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6aa…8882backed Yes16c375.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.327219.4%14 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca1…3d96backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes14c356.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.63036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e5…4597backed Yes42c350$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Yes50c313.4$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.252433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes35c298.95$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.732832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5444…bbdabacked No71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Yes63c271.05$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.512369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Yes41c269.9$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.662748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…719bbacked Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked No73c246$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ec…e392backed Yes24c241.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No59c241.1$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.115540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b98…5beabacked Yes42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb38…f78dbacked Yes41c237.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.281656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6070…88a8backed No46c237.18$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.891258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.956951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes13c218$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes46c210.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.027450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes28c190.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No52c190.05$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9628241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No57c190$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.97750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked No74c185.7$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.943751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f22…2935backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…8c08backed No50c169.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+185.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c4d…0486backed Yes60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed No54c166.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7320645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Yes43c164.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06cc…2e61backed Yes13c163.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes31c159$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.295345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked No46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…3e16backed Yes29c149$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99f…0d86backed Yes45c147.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No46c146.93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed Yes61c146.32$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.655375.5%40 W · 13 L+10.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+41.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes53c144.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes13c144.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.719721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed No76c141$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.573262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fca…819abacked Yes43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes52c133.95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707067.1%47 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed No60c131.79$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.482347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No58c128.77$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2439558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6bf…a80dbacked Yes12c128$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Yes36c126.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510865.7%71 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes26c124$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8122245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e19…1495backed No71c120.89$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.062373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a6…44edbacked Yes13c119.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.597755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked No58c117$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.452450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Yes36c113.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.836758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed Yes13c113.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154030%12 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaed7…73d2backed Yes14c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Yes44c107.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked No49c102.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.461662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…ed5fbacked Yes59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+65.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Yes13c100.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.079850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa39f…0af2backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.