Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7efef3800b1cca6686dabb85c1a113c18ddddc3fcf8a71d62ea1d346467a713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 20c | 37,381$7,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,471.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 20,821$16,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,176.04 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 12,939$9,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.39 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 80c | 9,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 24c | 6,041$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.8 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 4,049$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 3,930$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.96 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 3,841$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 26c | 1,374$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.22 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 1,301$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.27 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 42c | 1,186$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…d098backed Yes | 27c | 714.28$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes | 29c | 696.42$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed No | 78c | 692$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 26c | 509.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 407.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…81c4backed Yes | 38c | 392.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 24c | 373.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 19c | 358$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 350.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 74c | 300.98$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 300.24$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…4a86backed Yes | 27c | 296.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ab9abacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 30c | 272.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 19c | 268.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 237.68$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 60c | 193.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 32c | 179.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 19c | 152.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 143.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 75c | 141.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f5…5cfbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 30c | 132.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 40c | 125.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Yes | 17c | 122.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 117.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…a923backed No | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9198backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 16c | 101.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…55f1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…4af3backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked No | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7c…8ab4backed Yes | 27c | 75.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 73.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 27c | 71.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…71efbacked Yes | 37c | 70.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 70.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ea…ce0bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 61.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…5cddbacked No | 74c | 59.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 78c | 58.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked No | 70c | 58.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Yes | 23c | 47.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f77…f668backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 43.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7f…9da6backed No | 65c | 42.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…8b7fbacked No | 68c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 72c | 41.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked No | 66c | 39.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Yes | 37c | 37.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 67c | 36.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 69c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed No | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed No | 75c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.