Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ca59a603248b6a78118755aa40b9ae05e933d98746a5d4c35bee4db416ab6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,632$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 764.27$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 755.1$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 613.32$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 50c | 433.3$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 427.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 390.94$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 328.58$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 325$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 317.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 77c | 292.88$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 288.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…de08backed Yes | 77c | 285.38$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 284.74$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 280.84$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 273.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 273$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.53 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 270.02$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 254.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 226.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 219.59$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 212.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 27c | 208.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 37c | 205.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 190.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 177.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 165.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 162.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 34c | 161.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 159.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 146$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 37c | 135.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 30c | 130.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 125.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 120.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 117.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 36c | 110.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 31c | 109.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 107.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 101.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 38c | 101.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 39c | 101.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 23c | 100.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 98.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 94.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 32c | 92.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 64c | 88.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 88.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 15c | 87.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 39c | 84.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 83.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 83.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 51c | 83.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 82.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 82.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 79.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 53c | 75.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…403cbacked No | 59c | 75.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 21c | 72.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 72.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 64c | 72.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 23c | 72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 70.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 36c | 67.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 66.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 66.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 78c | 66.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 65.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 64.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…2c70backed Yes | 31c | 64.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 64.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2898…9e13backed No | 75c | 63.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 28c | 63.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 63.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 61.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 23c | 60.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…6b35backed No | 76c | 57.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 55.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 46c | 54.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 39c | 52.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 51.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 51.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 51.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 79c | 50.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 50.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.