TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c1,632$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.421,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c764.27$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.858,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c755.1$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c613.32$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes50c433.3$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c427.81$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.953,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No62c390.94$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No62c328.58$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.021,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c325$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c317.71$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.076,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes77c292.88$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8817553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c288.71$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.832,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…de08backed Yes77c285.38$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes48c284.74$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.481,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No69c280.84$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1260054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c273.44$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No61c273$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5386949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c270.02$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.772,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.415841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes36c254.63$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c226.31$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.164,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c219.59$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.034,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c212.59$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.574,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes27c208.32$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.326046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes37c205.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4227047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes18c190.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c177.89$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.732,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c165.18$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.294,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c162.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes34c161.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c159.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.791,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c155$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes40c146$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8920339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes37c135.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6220327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed Yes30c130.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.123348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No64c125.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes19c120.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.591,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c117.15$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.333,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e2…aab7backed Yes36c110.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.841723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes31c109.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes27c107.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.891,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c101.58$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.253,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes38c101.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.993839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes39c101.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes23c100.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2722335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes37c99.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9926540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No71c98.61$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No65c94.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes32c92.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7213531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes36c90$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed No64c88.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No76c88.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1177555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes15c87.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.647540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes39c84.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5941051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c83.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes37c83.19$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.411,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes51c83.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.025455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes12c82.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7140525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No74c82.03$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.841,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd636…10efbacked No61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.62347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No22c79.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.522,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes53c75.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4098…403cbacked No59c75.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4540%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes21c72.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9731836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c72.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No64c72.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes23c72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7644536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c70.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes36c67.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5523463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c66.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.672,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c66.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.876,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes78c66.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8416642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No74c65.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c64.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.827,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc64…2c70backed Yes31c64.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.392429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No42c64.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.072,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2898…9e13backed No75c63.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.71977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes28c63.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No51c63.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.551,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes23c61.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.641,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes23c60.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5418222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7122744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e27…d5babacked Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.043135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb39d…6b35backed No76c57.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No58c55.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5642151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No57c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes46c54.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1822550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes39c52.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.415349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes50c51.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No78c51.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No60c51.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.92,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No78c51.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No79c50.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No41c50.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.552,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.