Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Tereza Valentova vs Madison Keys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47f102c88d8cef07ebaafd5cfbfd3afb01ab06cf0375525850e8e7caf11780e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Valentova, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Keys | 59c | 5,050$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.05 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Valentova | 41c | 4,187$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.2 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Keys | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Keys | 66c | 3,581$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.25 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Keys | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Valentova | 27c | 2,726$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valentova | 41c | 2,052$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.89 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Valentova | 40c | 2,031$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.51 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keys | 70c | 1,855$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Valentova | 41c | 1,536$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Keys | 60c | 1,500$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.55 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Valentova | 35c | 1,486$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.92 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Valentova | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Valentova | 40c | 1,078$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.56 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Valentova | 43c | 1,072$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.69 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Valentova | 48c | 1,049$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Valentova | 42c | 990.87$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.52 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Valentova | 43c | 784.11$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.82 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Keys | 57c | 780.25$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.31 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Keys | 57c | 699.98$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Keys | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Keys | 62c | 649.43$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.46 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Valentova | 45c | 647.01$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.35 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Valentova | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 306 | 45.1%138 W · 168 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…6fbebacked Valentova | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Valentova | 26c | 551.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Keys | 59c | 508.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Keys | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Keys | 58c | 346$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…1a99backed Keys | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Valentova | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Valentova | 40c | 275.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keys | 55c | 249.88$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Valentova | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Keys | 53c | 225$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Valentova | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Keys | 59c | 201.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Keys | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Valentova | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…9b53backed Keys | 61c | 182.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Keys | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…772abacked Keys | 59c | 168.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Keys | 60c | 168.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Valentova | 44c | 164$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Keys | 68c | 148.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Valentova | 39c | 141.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Keys | 62c | 115.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Keys | 58c | 113.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Keys | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Valentova | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Keys | 58c | 85.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Keys | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Valentova | 40c | 75.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…3885backed Keys | 73c | 74.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb434…2b36backed Keys | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…ec6bbacked Keys | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Keys | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Valentova | 41c | 49.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Valentova | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Keys | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Valentova | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Valentova | 41c | 39.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Keys | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Keys | 56c | 30.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Keys | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Keys | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Keys | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Keys | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Keys | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Keys | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Tereza Valentova vs Madison Keysthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Valentova vs KeysKeys won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5)Keys won
- Valentova vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Valentova vs. Keys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Valentova vs. Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.