Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47fb5bf0e4e9b7f77809d3a78df49cafd0c3386ddc4cb88c037bce0b55f33f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,960$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…c2d0backed Over | 6c | 1,465$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 913.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 20c | 904.87$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…45cebacked Over | 21c | 767.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 18c | 765.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…76debacked Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 17c | 298.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 79c | 206.61$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 23c | 203.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…4160backed Under | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 187.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 23c | 143$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 80c | 126.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 79c | 113.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 258 | 48.4%125 W · 133 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 77c | 103.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 271 | 54.6%148 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 20c | 100.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…87b8backed Under | 80c | 84.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…47e7backed Under | 78c | 81.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…9150backed Under | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 80c | 73.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 21c | 49.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 23c | 48.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e5…3303backed Under | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…2217backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 58 | 79.3%46 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 80c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 78c | 14.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 365 | 58.4%213 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Under | 80c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5this page
- Argentina vs. Iceland: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: Iceland O/U 1.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Iceland (-1.5)Argentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.