AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4837334c1dc131237c16d83ccc1420a1b5f0dbedc345aa9bb7c25501e02b8087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 1c | 4,907$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 13c | 2,507$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.23 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked Yes | 34c | 2,100$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 19c | 2,093$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 8c | 1,012$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 950.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 22c | 912.83$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…19c8backed Yes | 11c | 672.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…e911backed Yes | 21c | 664.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 71c | 543.74$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…a949backed Yes | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 51c | 468.43$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 3c | 420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 359.43$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 357.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 297.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…5272backed Yes | 11c | 264.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…96e2backed Yes | 15c | 262.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…71eebacked Yes | 17c | 254.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 20c | 251.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…daf9backed Yes | 5c | 224.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 177.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 163.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 29c | 141.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…88debacked Yes | 17c | 139.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 17c | 119.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 111.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…5676backed Yes | 18c | 107.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed Yes | 20c | 97.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6588…6778backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 37c | 62.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.