AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dcae63a5f4a45d19e0352503432c6ab4af53637686e390aca76e33d8f199e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 7c | 4,115$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.32 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 15c | 3,660$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.71 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 2,198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 43c | 1,692$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 2c | 1,376$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 12c | 1,350$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 64c | 1,290$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.02 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 12c | 1,110$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 8c | 1,075$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked No | 6c | 512.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 446.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 333.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 10c | 303.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 6c | 299.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…2bfebacked No | 18c | 284.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 10c | 268.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 12c | 246.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed No | 12c | 187.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed No | 23c | 176.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 25c | 160.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 13c | 142.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 126$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 14c | 93.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 91.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 82.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 77c | 74.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…401ebacked No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 20c | 60.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 75c | 54.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…b21fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…4956backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 74c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa454…daafbacked Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.