College Football · resolved market
UCF vs. Baylor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4891d40f8dff2ba9f067518d2c3277eb7fd90e22e3e4ed12047913e7e14f01c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylorof UCF, Baylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,287,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,669,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,287,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Baylor | 59c | 799,923$474,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325,500.51 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UCF | 41c | 657,411$268,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268,341.56 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UCF | 40c | 44,829$17,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,931.6 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed UCF | 41c | 26,767$10,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,974.59 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed UCF | 41c | 12,500$5,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Baylor | 58c | 8,652$5,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.8 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Baylor | 59c | 6,838$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.48 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UCF | 41c | 5,000$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked UCF | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed UCF | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor | 58c | 4,489$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.81 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UCF | 22c | 4,308$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.99 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed UCF | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed UCF | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Baylor | 61c | 3,279$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.69 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed UCF | 40c | 2,032$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.48 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…d55dbacked Baylor | 60c | 1,691$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…c1f9backed UCF | 40c | 1,689$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Baylor | 71c | 1,451$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.4 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Baylor | 60c | 1,282$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.8 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Baylor | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…df3abacked Baylor | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…0da6backed UCF | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…54d9backed UCF | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbc…93ebbacked Baylor | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baylor | 59c | 874.34$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.06 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UCF | 3c | 850$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Baylor | 61c | 832.08$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.51 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked UCF | 40c | 684$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Baylor | 60c | 530$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…e5babacked Baylor | 60c | 524.42$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…c709backed UCF | 40c | 513.8$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed UCF | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e2bbacked UCF | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baylor | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…b63fbacked UCF | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed UCF | 32c | 366.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed UCF | 42c | 325$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…07f2backed Baylor | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…cf53backed Baylor | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…0ecabacked Baylor | 61c | 280$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…9895backed UCF | 39c | 280$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed UCF | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked UCF | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked UCF | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…eaefbacked Baylor | 60c | 202$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…7deabacked Baylor | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed UCF | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Baylor | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Baylor | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Baylor | 60c | 158$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…e968backed UCF | 42c | 144.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Baylor | 59c | 125.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed UCF | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed UCF | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bab…30edbacked Baylor | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…8546backed Baylor | 60c | 99.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked UCF | 12c | 99.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Baylor | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…a330backed Baylor | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed UCF | 41c | 68.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Baylor | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCF | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…f133backed Baylor | 60c | 52.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…828cbacked UCF | 40c | 52.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked UCF | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Baylor | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed UCF | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked UCF | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…a34fbacked UCF | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed UCF | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…422ebacked Baylor | 60c | 48.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…2f53backed UCF | 40c | 48.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…6e9dbacked Baylor | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Baylor | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…cabfbacked UCF | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…c18dbacked UCF | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed UCF | 41c | 29.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…9806backed UCF | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…c02abacked Baylor | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UCF vs. Baylorthis page
- O/U 60.5Under won
- Spread: Baylor (-3.5)Baylor won
- UCF vs. Baylor: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.