NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4895377a674280fd314539fc9f1520409344d2378488dea8db0f6fbc2296f576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 47c | 9,632$4,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479.5 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 4,390$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 2,318$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.34 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 57c | 2,006$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.04 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 43c | 1,669$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.55 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 60c | 1,621$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.63 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 2c | 1,052$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 35c | 567.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.44 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 454.96$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 69c | 433.03$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Under | 63c | 431.55$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.59 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…f453backed Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under | 55c | 389.59$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 35c | 373.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 373.34$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 55c | 304.21$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 45c | 268.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 41c | 246$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 195$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 34c | 187.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 156.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 66c | 152.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 13c | 148.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 44c | 137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 119.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 59c | 107.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 42c | 57.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 41c | 56.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…6639backed Over | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 56c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…ea8ebacked Under | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Under | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 55c | 45.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over | 24c | 44.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 37c | 39.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…ad47backed Over | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Under | 56c | 35.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…bf86backed Over | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 29.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 55c | 28.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…e362backed Over | 44c | 24.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…e618backed Under | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 44c | 23.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…ed8bbacked Under | 57c | 21.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…598ebacked Under | 58c | 20.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…3332backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Under | 75c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…a693backed Over | 70c | 16.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julian Strawther: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.