TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$741,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$906,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $741,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Celtics51c297,570$151,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,760.6572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked Nuggets49c151,210$74,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,117.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Nuggets49c87,398$42,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,495.341,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Nuggets49c80,000$39,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,799.9443148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Celtics51c65,000$33,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,15029650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Celtics51c37,081$18,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,911.1527747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Celtics50c24,980$12,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,49059347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Nuggets50c24,479$12,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,239.548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets49c22,212$10,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,328.1292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Celtics50c21,258$10,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,629.2287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Nuggets49c20,408$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.1620758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets49c15,702$7,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,008.022,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Nuggets49c15,182$7,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,742.821,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Nuggets48c11,900$5,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,187.972045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets50c8,422$4,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,245.624,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Nuggets49c8,122$3,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,142.4516640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets49c8,001$3,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.939,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Nuggets48c7,370$3,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,832.3640350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics50c7,183$3,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,604.654,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Nuggets49c7,112$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,627.2448546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Celtics52c7,036$3,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,658.5421944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics52c5,767$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9991,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Nuggets49c5,431$2,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.6129347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb106…919abacked Nuggets49c5,188$2,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c3…f1ffbacked Nuggets49c4,440$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Celtics52c4,434$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.911,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets50c4,020$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.911,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9194…325ebacked Nuggets51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0402,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d8…eb75backed Celtics49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Celtics51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9779549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Nuggets48c3,977$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.2257950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Nuggets50c3,565$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.115655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics48c3,296$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Celtics52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Celtics51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Celtics51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2751,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.036,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Nuggets49c2,306$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.1238946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2fa…8d54backed Nuggets51c2,049$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Nuggets50c2,020$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01017454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Celtics52c1,955$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.8382442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f06…216ebacked Celtics49c1,903$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.471070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+57.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics51c1,900$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.993,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f37…4d4bbacked Nuggets51c1,898$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.021060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Celtics52c1,719$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.9921142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Celtics27c1,597$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.622140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…0bd6backed Celtics59c1,356$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid+28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Celtics51c1,180$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.815154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Celtics4c1,160$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3835844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ff…d7afbacked Nuggets49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.412450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Celtics48c1,020$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.613142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets41c1,003$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.672,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets49c1,001$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.24,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Celtics50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Nuggets51c933.14$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.8689050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Nuggets49c836.73$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.7323850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Nuggets45c827.66$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.0144352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…34debacked Nuggets49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4081637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Nuggets51c800$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39050653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Nuggets50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40011946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Celtics51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009843.9%43 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Celtics52c737$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2447856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc8…e7a9backed Celtics49c724.48$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe537…c1e6backed Celtics49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb98…8d58backed Celtics49c624.48$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Nuggets49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2464944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Nuggets50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Celtics51c599.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30649345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Nuggets52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9247651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcede…6736backed Nuggets49c574.88$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.193842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5737…6424backed Celtics51c564.71$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Celtics27c535.02$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.013,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nuggets50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4113…e904backed Nuggets43c468.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.475048%24 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Celtics49c445$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0519645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c1…deecbacked Nuggets48c416.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.98850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Nuggets50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Nuggets50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20015650%78 W · 78 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Nuggets51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19628929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Celtics51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20434447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Nuggets50c399.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9619045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Celtics51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Celtics50c350.88$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.443,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Celtics58c350$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20330348.2%146 W · 157 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Celtics61c321.13$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7113644.1%60 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Celtics50c302.42$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2252242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Nuggets50c288.68$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3410849.1%53 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Celtics52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Celtics52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509842.9%42 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1110…0123backed Nuggets50c287.28$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.644660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Nuggets49c270.1$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7540546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Celtics53c266.39$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.668826.1%23 W · 65 L-12.5wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Nuggets49c249.47$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.238055%44 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec2…921ebacked Nuggets52c242$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Nuggets49c235.52$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.121,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Celtics48c231.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.266855.9%38 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Nuggets49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0852146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nuggets49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Nuggets50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.