NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd09554720bf01479a896ef7fbbaec2c119bd72b3c0ba20277ca8d85622944b7

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,984 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	74c	2,898$2,151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$746.87	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	46c	2,292$1,051 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,241.01	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Under	51c	1,164$593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.2	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	48c	1,153$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.52	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	14c	1,100$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Over	50c	1,092$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	285	54.7%156 W · 129 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6733…96eebacked Over	54c	1,034$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	46c	1,034$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.42	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Over	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	67	64.2%43 W · 24 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Over	27c	999.92$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.98	265	30.9%82 W · 183 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	992.31$492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Over	56c	901.78$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.68	348	55.2%192 W · 156 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	24c	677.29$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.3	221	40.7%90 W · 131 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Over	53c	636.4$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.29	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	70c	594.88$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.98	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Over	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	623	47.7%297 W · 326 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	47c	299.99$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.91	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	54c	295.93$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.8	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Over	14c	292.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	30c	274.88$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.53	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Under	55c	263.39$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.53	201	47.8%96 W · 105 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	53c	260.88$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.38	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over	54c	258.66$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	46c	258.04$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.29	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	53c	253.65$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.38	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Over	5c	234.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	155	34.2%53 W · 102 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x154e…7a37backed Over	27c	224.79$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.59	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Over	57c	210.53$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Over	45c	195$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.75	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over	57c	191.59$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	277	46.6%129 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over	53c	189.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Over	48c	175.01$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.29	531	49.3%262 W · 269 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over	31c	158$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.98	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Under	47c	156.16$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.2	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	53c	154$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.62	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf6…4eaabacked Over	53c	151.66$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.38	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under	48c	133.93$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.64	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Under	52c	122.41$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.21	206	51.5%106 W · 100 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x724a…e2c0backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10e…18dfbacked Over	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a1…6bffbacked Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2696…c031backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	97.86$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.48	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	53c	94.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Under	48c	92.49$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.1	275	48.7%134 W · 141 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	45c	89.99$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.37	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over	52c	86.54$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Over	27c	83.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.63	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f4…5107backed Over	53c	56.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	63cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Over	53c	56.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	165	55.2%91 W · 74 L	-12.1wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	29c	52.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	54c	52.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over	56c	50.18$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	45c	48.73$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	181	50.3%91 W · 90 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b8…3c28backed Over	40c	47.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	169	44.4%75 W · 94 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Under	46c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	969	56.3%546 W · 423 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c1…18c7backed Over	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	140	42.9%60 W · 80 L	-9.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Under	47c	39.75$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.07	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	53c	39.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed Under	47c	39.27$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.81	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Under	44c	38.8$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.62	144	48.6%70 W · 74 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa839…6f8cbacked Under	47c	38.21$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.25	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Over	52c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	243	58%141 W · 102 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	47c	38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…48d8backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb11d…3706backed Under	47c	37.25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.74	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440a…9599backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	84	41.7%35 W · 49 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1e…e503backed Under	47c	36.93$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.57	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.2wins	-0.22per pick	48cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Under	58c	32.86$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.79	163	69.9%114 W · 49 L	+18.6wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0976…922bbacked Over	54c	32.31$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Over	57c	30.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	241	50.2%121 W · 120 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7307…7d23backed Under	65c	30.49$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.52	116	61.2%71 W · 45 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2537…dcecbacked Over	61c	27.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Under	47c	25.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.65	194	35.1%68 W · 126 L	-13.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Over	59c	25.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8311…3ed4backed Under	75c	24.21$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	620	49%304 W · 316 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5this page
1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Celtics won
Celtics vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5No won
Derrick White: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Julian Strawther: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 12.5No won
Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 10.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event