NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490e58692f77857a82dc687bae4adf0e4647f05c8469aa00a7730076906a060d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 49c | 10,169$4,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,933.81 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 50c | 7,932$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.06 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 45c | 5,447$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.09 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.96 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 4,896$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…4e39backed Over | 50c | 3,648$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…c15fbacked Under | 51c | 3,444$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 53c | 3,300$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 51c | 2,719$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.7 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 49c | 2,664$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.38 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 2,258$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.64 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 1,717$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.81 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 55c | 1,492$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.4 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Under | 52c | 1,247$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.49 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 45c | 1,056$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 46c | 802$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.92 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 55c | 799.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 716.94$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.47 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 51c | 705.88$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.88 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 4c | 699.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 3c | 538.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…e032backed Over | 47c | 428.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 190 | 45.8%87 W · 103 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 287.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Under | 54c | 286.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…3c00backed Under | 55c | 276.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.57 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Over | 45c | 237.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 202 | 37.1%75 W · 127 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked Under | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Over | 50c | 201.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 175.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 53c | 152.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 149.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Over | 49c | 148.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 148.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 140.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…3dbebacked Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Under | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Over | 46c | 57.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Under | 51c | 57.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Over | 47c | 54.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…fa34backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 44.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 47c | 38.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a62ebacked Over | 45c | 37.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 47c | 34.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 49c | 34.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ddc2backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…0133backed Over | 50c | 29.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…b331backed Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…9aa3backed Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 45c | 25.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 25.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Under | 55c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 55c | 19.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julian Strawther: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.