Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d9592282cb36a3e5419c1da1c89c6c57998b1f50353855870f30b1e0a200fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 75c | 4,216$3,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.36 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 3,500$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.96 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 56c | 2,140$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.53 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 24c | 1,319$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.87 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 44c | 1,161$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.26 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No | 61c | 910$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.81 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 75c | 783.17$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.38 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 72c | 745.74$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.81 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…81e9backed No | 78c | 643.57$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 27c | 561.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.74 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 37c | 506.12$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked No | 44c | 500.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…6d69backed Yes | 76c | 471.56$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 63c | 393.65$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…34f3backed No | 74c | 310.32$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…3370backed No | 75c | 302.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 23c | 276.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 221.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 76c | 213.26$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 28c | 178.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Yes | 24c | 176.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 74c | 162$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…c22ebacked No | 45c | 159.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 76c | 133.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…821ebacked Yes | 28c | 131.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 74c | 101.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58bf…040abacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…1becbacked No | 75c | 95.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…a563backed No | 53c | 92.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Yes | 24c | 81.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 24c | 79.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 23c | 78.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…71f4backed Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked No | 77c | 64.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…9d1abacked Yes | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…1d7abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6677backed Yes | 31c | 47.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…64cfbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…03f8backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…c81dbacked No | 76c | 40.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…abb3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd686…055abacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 75c | 31.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…599bbacked No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d1…c822backed No | 76c | 27.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e4…43bebacked No | 76c | 25.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…694cbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…6774backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…8861backed No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f97…d19fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…42acbacked No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 77c | 14.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdb…d462backed No | 76c | 14.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…c0fdbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…5aedbacked No | 77c | 14.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…b5a0backed No | 76c | 13.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02?No won
- Will Newcastle vs. Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.