TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9478…63f5backed No50c9,996$5,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,970.35959.3%35 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked No50c4,154$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,088.4510650%53 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc0…53ddbacked Yes50c2,576$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2881526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98031944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9732158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3572…9d39backed Yes48c1,963$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No51c1,925$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94468026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35c…e1bebacked No51c1,764$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cb…710dbacked Yes49c1,744$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed No51c1,691$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.618652.3%45 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked Yes49c1,685$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.821952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b3…4b03backed No51c1,666$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1cf5backed Yes49c1,526$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes50c1,458$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.085048%24 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x484c…017ebacked Yes49c1,430$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002725.9%7 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed No47c1,357$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.269037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb7…517dbacked Yes50c1,217$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes50c1,096$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5525740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes50c1,053$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7629044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15df…9465backed Yes49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a6…ee95backed No58c1,005$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.175554.5%30 W · 25 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50040046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479c…bcbcbacked No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…a151backed Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed No49c999.97$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.996959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No49c999.92$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.968145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No63c988.11$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.0837841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009238%35 W · 57 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca95…fc40backed No49c975.6$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.733551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x541e…e793backed No53c933$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.511747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb65d…3757backed Yes48c900$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4322853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3403…876bbacked Yes53c849.06$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes46c725$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.998633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed No48c668.77$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.765554.5%30 W · 25 L+10.6wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8cd3…3c5abacked Yes43c658.42$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.881838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2422…d02cbacked Yes50c642.09$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes49c608.31$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.993826.3%10 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked No53c550.03$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.512755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes50c538.24$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1244939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14516851.2%86 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b16…9decbacked Yes52c498.08$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa946…9da9backed Yes52c491.51$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf322…a2c1backed Yes49c469.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No70c454.16$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1619652%102 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes49c451.01$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8740254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c65…a0b7backed Yes51c439.52$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No49c419.06$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7214659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd244…f24cbacked Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ad…72d7backed Yes51c415$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.655641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8abf…6d69backed Yes38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521030%3 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick64cpaid-61.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Yes47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885653.6%30 W · 26 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+53.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x793a…197abacked No51c352.59$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e27…8fc9backed Yes51c294.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa807…9a61backed Yes51c268.76$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12517945.8%82 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06d…11cabacked Yes51c247.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdff…3e7fbacked Yes49c242.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd968…bd18backed Yes35c228.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.882330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x229d…0922backed No50c221$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb149…77a4backed Yes50c221$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce62…73d5backed Yes33c220$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.45032%16 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9651…c94dbacked Yes50c212$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d1…8859backed No50c212$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b12…79cbbacked No51c211.25$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783e…fb1abacked Yes50c211$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…7fe2backed No50c211$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ee…e21dbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes50c202.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.386747.8%32 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7432…794bbacked Yes54c200.19$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.511937%44 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.518232.4%59 W · 123 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026360.3%38 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a9c…b949backed No51c196.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95cc…7f08backed Yes49c193.1$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.623650%18 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ce…4711backed Yes50c193.05$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…a171backed Yes51c191.53$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.683732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f77…5ab3backed No52c190.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc559…f430backed Yes49c187.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac8f…1d0cbacked No52c184.27$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No50c181$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.569772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xae1c…2bc3backed No51c176.47$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7adc…7603backed Yes51c176.47$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes50c167$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6529238.4%112 W · 180 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f15…174bbacked Yes75c161.75$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…f213backed No25c161.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.311172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3bca…fff1backed Yes51c155.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e30…9e6fbacked Yes59c152.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes48c149.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed No65c148.02$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.812138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed No53c140$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.83754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0129…53cebacked No48c136.22$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.442634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked No50c135.59$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1514450.7%73 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ac…e4a5backed Yes51c127.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.15560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+67.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb5…aeb9backed Yes48c122.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.23850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.39534.7%33 W · 62 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd7…c1f3backed Yes49c119.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.783534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdeff…edeabacked No51c119$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+140.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.