Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd4dd96ddefbf44d575a44f47e2b2ea66f47cbaf1cf405e1c2fc399b0052bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 3,021$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.83 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 32c | 1,769$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…0901backed No | 76c | 1,574$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.91 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 66c | 852$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…4affbacked Yes | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 73c | 399.94$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…7f9bbacked Yes | 29c | 157.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…8260backed No | 75c | 135.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5b0bbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…c4a6backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…d4a9backed Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 78c | 129.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 76c | 111.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…a9b5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 73c | 93.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…f213backed No | 66c | 88.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 17c | 72.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 31c | 64.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 70c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb599…1b7fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcb…b048backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…d6d9backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…8a00backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…ec89backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…2fdebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8876…caa2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfa…5192backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…e1ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 67c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.