Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f3370302a074c0ac38960c1cc6e3c2c4c6b05159cbb73f098fce4bce10ddd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 585.07$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.91 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 9c | 363.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 322.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 318.3$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 304.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 237.89$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 23c | 204.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.91 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 200.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 170.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 56c | 166.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 46c | 159.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 157.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 148.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 38c | 144.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 140.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 135.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 79c | 133.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 48c | 122$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 79c | 111.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 106.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 103.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 21c | 100.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 40c | 84.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 78c | 82.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 79.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 74.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 55c | 74.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 67.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 66.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 63.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…b287backed Yes | 56c | 61.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 58.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 57c | 56.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 36c | 55.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 50c | 49.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 44.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 45c | 43.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 47c | 39.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 48c | 33.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 51c | 31.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 62c | 30.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 29.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 66c | 21.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 79c | 18.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 79c | 17.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.